Monday, February 9, 2009

Two more vote updates from the past weekend

We have two more presbytery vote updates from the past weekend.  Both are "no" votes, however both of these were expected, and again the trends look good.

Flint River:
2001-2 01-A: 20 yes, 71 no --> 22% YES
2009 08-B: 27 yes, 47 no --> 36.5% YES

This is one of the first presbyteries to break with the trend of "under-30% presbyteries are shifting anti-gay". Here we have nearly a 15% PRO-equality shift in a traditionally very anti-LGBT presbytery.

Flint River's vote shows that it IS possible to move the vote pro-equality even in the difficult presbyteries. Even better is that the shift doesn't result entirely from fewer people voting "no" -- there was also a significant increase in the "yes" vote count even though the total number of people voting at presbytery declined from 2001-2.

So I wouldn't place any bets on a "yes to delete B" vote from Flint River any time soon, but this year's vote is a very positive trend.

2001-2 01-A: voice vote "no" --> no percentage available
2009 08-B: 18 yes, 38 no --> 32% YES

Here we have our second "voice 'no' vote in 2001-2" presbytery to take its vote. Unlike East Tennessee, Wyoming didn't flip pro-LGBT. However, even the fact that the presbytery shifted from taking a voice vote to taking a counted vote suggests to me that there's a pro-LGBT trend. If a vote is going to be really painfully lopsided, you can take it via voice, but Wyoming didn't do that this year.

Wyoming has now come in at over 30% pro-LGBT in the vote, so if my rule of thumb holds that says ">30% pro-equality means it will trend more pro-equality", then over time Wyoming should improve gradually in its pro-LGBT voting patterns.

So again even though both of these are "no" votes, the trends favor equality for both of these presbyteries.