Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Four presbytery votes, three flip pro-equality today

The votes keep coming in and the news today is good.  Two of the presbyteries to vote today were presbyteries very close to 50% "yes" in 2001-2, so we'd expect them to flip pro-equality this year.

Great Rivers:
2001-2 01-A: 99 yes, 108 yes --> 47.8% YES
2009 08-B: 85 yes, 74 no --> 53.5% YES

This was a swing presbytery which we'd hope would shift to a pro-equality vote this year, and it did, with close to a 6% pro-equality shift.

Glacier Presbytery:
2001-2 01-A: 11 yes, 21 no --> 34.4% YES
2009 08-B: 7 yes, 28 no --> 20.0% YES

This 14% anti-equality vote shift is disappointing, and breaks the general trend that says if you were previously over 30% pro-equality support, then the presbytery is typically shifting pro-equality in its votes. However the total number of people voting is so small that the percentage is very susceptible to smaller fluctuations in total vote counts.

Maumee Valley:
2001-2 01-A: 51 yes, 70 no --> 42% YES
2009 08-B: 65 yes, 58 no --> 53% YES

With an 11% pro-equality shift and coming from a low-40% equality support to break over 50% this year, Maumee Valley so far is the big equality winner for the day.

Scioto Valley:
2001-2 01-A: 103 yes, 105 no --> 49.5% YES
2009 08-B: 115 yes, 88 no --> 56.7% YES

Obviously that 2001-2 vote is about as close as you can get short of an exact tie. It's great to see a solid 7% pro-equality shift from Scioto Valley.