Saturday, January 31, 2009

Western North Carolina flips vote to pro-LGBT

I was just now updating the 08-B vote comparison spreadsheet maintained here and I noticed that we had our first Presbytery vote flip today compared to 2001-2002. Western North Carolina shifted a huge 19% pro-LGBT since 2001, when it voted down 01-A. This year it voted in FAVOR of 08-B.

Here's a summary of the votes that appear to have happened today, or recently. The full details are on the spreadsheet.

So far, 22 presbyteries have shifted pro-LGBT, and only 11 presbyteries have shifted anti-LGBT. Almost all of the presbyteries with anti-LGBT shifts are presbyteries which had 30% or less support for equality to begin with.

I've also added a section at the bottom of the tracking spreadsheet that shows the vote by count of presbytery commissioners (1 person = 1 vote). This is presently running at a +5% pro-LGBT shift since 2001-2, which means that we're within striking distance of having a majority of total COMMISSIONERS vote to delete B. Regardless of what happens with the presbytery votes (which are winner-take-all), the total commissioner vote will also be an important symbolic metric.

2001-2 01-A: 54 yes, 21 no --> 72% YES
2009 08-B: 33 yes, 12 no --> 73% YES (+1%)

2001-2 01-A: 26 yes, 62 no --> 30% YES
2009 08-B: 26 yes, 36 no --> 42% YES (+12%)
This is a 12% shift in just 7 years, which is excellent. Many of the presbyteries with very low pro-LGBT support levels appear to be difficult to shift pro-LGBT, but in Huntingdon it happened.

Santa Barbara:
2001-2 01-A: 39 yes, 101 no --> 28% YES
2009 08-B: 20 yes, 85 no --> 19% YES (-9%)
This anti-LGBT trend is consistent with percentage swings that are showing up in other low-LGBT-support presbyteries. Santa Barbara wasn't about to vote yes on 08-B anyway, though the -9% shift is somewhat annoying.

Southern Kansas:
2001-2 01-A: 42 yes, 94 no --> 31% YES
2009 08-B 35 yes, 69 no --> 34% YES (+3%)

Western North Carolina:
2001-2 01-A: 100 yes, 165 no --> 38% YES
2009 08-B: 144 yes, 108 no --> 57% YES (+19%)
This presbytery wasn't even in "swing" voting range, but it just flipped. Congratulations to More Light supporters in Western North Carolina presbytery, and please feel free to share your tips about presbytery get-out-the-vote strategies.